Dud (the tetralogy)
The Thorns' season hits a new low point in a bloop-tastic 1-0 loss to the Red Stars
Game #20: Red Stars 1 - Thorns 0
8 wins - 3 draws - 9 losses
6th place | 27 points
Yes, folks, I did have to look up the word “tetralogy” — that’s if a trilogy is actually four things — because the Thorns have, for the first time in their history, lost four games in a row. What’s even more concerning than the loss was that the Thorns only got off two shots on goal the entire game, a shockingly weak offensive performance for a team so full of talent.
The game was full of one low point after another:
About 15 minutes in, an awkward back-pass and miscommunication between Olivia Moultrie, Kelli Hubly, and Mackenzie Arnold resulted in an open blooper of a goal for Chicago’s Ally Schlegel.
On a breakaway deep in the second half, Hubly roughly arm-tackled Mallory Swanson into the ground. Swanson was clearly immediately hurt with some type of upper-body injury, and came out of the game. Hubly was quite lucky to escape with only a yellow card. After years of seeing defenders rough up Sophia Smith on breakaways, it was a low feeling to see a Thorns defender actually knock an opposing star out of the game in a similar moment.
A few minutes later, Hina Sugita knocked heads in the penalty box with a Chicago opponent, on a play where both players were looking to head the ball. Sugita also came out of the game immediately, and was in such bad shape that she couldn’t even walk back into the locker room at first, but had to be attended to the medical staff on the sideline.
We haven’t heard much of an injury update yet on either Swanson or Sugita.
While the Thorns stayed in sixth place after the game, looking at the standings at this point is like looking over a cliff:
Portland Thorns - 27 points
Chicago Red Stars - 26 points
Bay FC - 25 points
Racing Louisville - 22 points
Angel City - 21 points
With six games remaining in the season, the Thorns absolutely have the time and the talent to head into the playoffs with momentum. A really hot streak could even see the team get back into the top four seeds, and be a first-round playoff host. But, the aura around the team right feels like more losses are about to come in the future.
What’s working: defense
I was encouraged just by seeing the starting lineup before this game: I felt like the team was rolling out with its very best defense unit. From left to right: Reyna Reyes — Becky Sauerbrunn — Kelli Hubly — Marie Müller. While the defense was not perfect in this game — see: the blooper for a goal, a desperate fast-break foul — Portland did a relatively good job of bottling up the Red Stars’ attack, limiting them to just two shots on target.
Somehow — even though they’ve all been healthy — the Thorns have conspired to start this group of four defenders in only seven of their 20 games so far. In those seven games, the team has allowed 1.14 goals per game. In the 13 games with literally any other lineup, the team is allowing 1.53 goals per game.
So, what I’m calling the Thorns’ best defense is cutting out 0.39 goals per game. Just in case that feels like a small decimal: that is absolutely gigantic production in soccer. Only 16 players across the entire NWSL are scoring more than 0.39 goals per 90 minutes. When the Thorns take the field with any other starting lineup other than this one — which is most of the time — they are basically gifting the opponent the production of a star player, before the ball is kicked off. Using this lineup so infrequently invites the question — and the same question goes for both defense and offense — do the Thorns know who their own best players are?
(It’s been said before here on Thorn Town, and unfortunately may be said again: Mackenzie Arnold had another monster game in goal, despite the loss. Facing a penalty kick against Swanson early in the second half, Arnold’s fake-out stutter-step had her in complete control of the moment, making a relatively easy save.)
What’s not working: offense
It’s hard to believe, but it’s true: the last time the Thorns scored multiple goals in a game was way back on May 17th. That is ten straight games with this absolutely loaded roster not putting up a “2” on the scoreboard.
Over those ten games, looking at just the six midfielders and forwards, the Thorns have made an average of 2.2 changes to the starting lineup between each game, including never starting the same group of six players. There have been a lot of outside circumstances, like small injuries, that have forced a good amount of those changes. But what’s also true is: a lack of continuity and game-by-game tinkering has meant that the team’s preferred offensive lineup is a complete unknown, this deep into the season.
A lot of the lineup decisions also give the impression that the Thorns are not being thorough in their self-scouting, and understanding their own strengths and weaknesses. For instance: newcomer Alexa Spaanstra was given the starting job a few days after coming into town in mid-August. She’s started all four games that the Thorns have played since she was traded, playing an average of 74.75 minutes per game. Meantime, Payton Linnehan has only received four starts all season, and has only played 50 total minutes since Spaanstra’s arrival. Let’s take a look at the head-to-head stats when each player has been on the field for Portland:
Spaanstra
Individual shot on target once every 299 minutes
Team goal every 149.5 minutes
-5 goal differential
Linnehan
Individual shot on target once every 64.8 minutes
Team goal every 57.6 minutes
+4 goal differential
Spaanstra did have an absolutely sterling assist in Game #19, against the Washington Spirit, and I’m still optimistic about this addition to the Thorns in the long-term. But: why did the coaching staff make sure that Spaanstra was thrown into the deep end, making a newcomer get up to speed on the field during must-win games, while having a wildly productive prospect collect dust on the bench?
This isn’t the only problem with the Thorns’ offense — but it does feel like a microcosm of what’s gone wrong. Much like the issues with the sub-optimal defensive lineups, it feels like the Thorns don’t know their own roster and, accordingly, are reacting game-by-game, instead of executing an intentional plan.
Up next
The Thorns go on a West Coast sojourn — I’m assuming without returning back to good ol Portland — that certainly feels like the make-or-break moment for the season. Although, I mean, what won’t be a make-or-break moment between August and Halloween?
The upcoming Southern California schedule looks like this:
Wednesday, September 18 | at San Diego Wave | 7:00 pm | CONCACAF W Champions Cup
Monday, September 23 | at Angel City | 7:00 pm | NWSL Regular Season
Saturday, September 28 | at San Diego Wave | 7:00 pm | NWSL Regular Season
The trip starts off with a game tomorrow in the CONCACAF W Champions Cup, the amazingly convoluted tournament that Thorn Town explained here. From there, it’s two straight regular season games against teams that aren’t in the playoffs. And, after everything: right now, the Thorns are still a playoff team. For now.