Hopes and dreams from a slow free agency
Hello?
It is true that, after an anti-climactic and incredibly technical expansion draft, free agency moves have started to happen around the league. But it hasn’t exactly been an avalanche of activity, with most of the biggest names still out on the market. And things have been really slow around Thorn Town, with the team extending one player already under contract, and adding no new players so far. Let’s tackle them both:
Sugita extends
Way back to a few days before the expansion draft, the Thorns extended the contract of Hina Sugita: previously under contract through the end of 2024, she will now be with the team through the end of 2026. This is the first piece of good news for the team in honestly quite some time, and wow is it a massively important move to secure the services of an international player who would presumably have options in all sorts of other countries. While Sophia Smith is out in a universe of her own, I personally tend to feel that Sugita’s creativity and finesse makes her the most quintessential Thorns player of this era, if that makes sense.
The Thorns’ own article announcing the extension really undersold Sugita’s statistical production, noting only that she was top-four on the team in all sorts of categories. Sugita is an offensive producer who isn’t just among the team’s best, but among the league’s best. In 2023:
Top-10 in goals per minute, tied with Alex Morgan.
Top-10 in goals plus assists per minute, a fraction behind Debinha, ESPN’s #26 player in the world.
Top-10 in total goals plus assists, tied with Lynn Williams and Megan Rapinoe.
Tied for third overall, with Sam Coffey, in plus-minus, at +11. While Smith was by far the league leader in this category (+17), it’s also true that the Thorns were merely shuffling along without Sugita. While the team went +11 in her 1,305 minutes, Portland was only -1 in the 675 minutes Sugita didn’t play.
I’m still pleasantly confused at how the Thorns front office identified Sugita in the first place. Previous to her Thorns career, Sugita’s stats didn’t leap off the page: she has three total goals in 44 Japanese national team appearances and, in 2021-22 (the first year Japan’s women’s league went from semi-pro to fully professional), she had one goal and three assists in only nine games played. Somehow, out of all the hundreds of players moving around the world, GM Karina LeBlanc found an unbelievably optimal fit — I suppose by simply grinding the tape? Sugita has been such a triumphant success in the NWSL, I will be 100% in on the next player the Thorns bring in from abroad, literally no matter the profile or résumé.
Who do we have now?
Alright, so, it’s been 46 days since the Thorns were eliminated at the hands of Gotham FC — and now only about 30-40 days before training camps start around the league in late January. With the expansion draft gunking up the works, it’s felt understandable why the offseason has walked along quite slowly. But, uh, the Thorns only have 14 players under contract right now, and a functional roster is going to have to come together quickly here. While a few players are scheduled to be added to the team from the college draft, on January 12, Portland needs to prioritize adding playoff-ready veterans to the roster, with Sophia Smith currently under contract for 2024 and 2024 only.
Here’s where the team stands right now:
4 Forwards: Janine Beckie, Izzy D’Aquila, Sophia Smith, Morgan Weaver
4 Midfielders: Sam Coffey, Olivia Moultrie, Rocky Rodriguez, Hina Sugita
3 Defenders: Kelli Hubly, Meaghan Nally, Reyna Reyes
3 Goalkeepers: Bella Bixby, Shelby Hogan, Lauren Kozal
So, with help needed all over the roster, this really puts into perspective that the Thorns need to acquire defensive help in order to have a complete team out on the field. Personally, I’m rooting for as little change from last season’s defense as possible, with Meghan Klingenberg, Natalia Kuikka, and Becky Sauerbrunn all returning. When fully healthy in 2022, that was a defensive line, along with Hubly, who was third-best in the league in both expected and actual goals allowed.
Kuikka is a restricted free agent, meaning the Thorns have the opportunity to match any contract offer that any other team extends — which hopefully leads to a reunion with the Finnish national player. Sauerbrunn has taken the understandable position that, as a player who’s done so much to fight for free agency, she intends to explore the process. Here’s hoping that, whatever conversations are happening behind the scenes right now, they lead to Sauerbrunn back in a Thorns uniform.
I’m personally fully prepared for Sauerbrunn to have a longer and more effective late-late-stage career arc than even the ageless Christine Sinclair. Sauerbrunn turned 38 in the middle of last season and, among regular players, had the Thorns’ best plus-minus per 90 minutes — yes, even better than Smith herself, +1.44 to +1.32. (Sinclair’s last season at better than +1 per 90 minutes was back in 2016.) If she wants to continue playing, Sauerbrunn can absolutely end up in the company of Sue Bird, LeBron James, Tom Brady in terms of adding real championship value at and beyond age 40. Re-signing Sauerbrunn is one of the best possible moves that any NWSL team could make this winter.
I dreamed a dream
For a moment here, I’m going to dream a dream, leave the contractual details to GM Karina LeBlanc, and put out my wish list of three free agents from across the league I hope the Thorns end up signing.
1. Emily von Egmond, midfielder, San Diego Wave
Throwing aside the Challenge Cup nonsense: Portland and San Diego have faced each other five times so far. While the Thorns won that sweet, sweet 2022 semifinal — that’s Portland’s only victory, with San Diego leading the cumulative goal scoring, 8-5. Looking at the field, it makes sense why San Diego dominates the Thorns: the Wave have carried a huge size advantage at every position, with the likes of von Egmond (5’10”) towering over Sugita (5’4”) in the midfield. Von Egmond’s quiet 10 appearances last year may have concealed that she was top-10 in the league in individual plus-minus and points per match.
2. Jessica McDonald, forward, Racing Louisville
McDonald hasn’t put together a strong NWSL season since 2019, as a member of the dynastic North Carolina Courage. At the same time, McDonald hasn’t been part of a great NWSL team since then, either, shuffling along on the slow-moving expansion team in Louisville. In 2023, McDonald only played in four games before shutting down for maternity leave — but one of those games saw her consistently out-working Reyna Reyes all up and down the wing against the Thorns. Although no goals came out of McDonald’s performance in that game, there were definitely no concerns that she was too old, at age 35 — just simply relief when she got subbed off. Like Von Egmond, McDonald really helps improve Portland’s size and strength.
3. Rose Lavelle, midfielder, OL Reign
I’m actually of two minds when it comes to Lavelle. Her ingenious creativity in the midfield was the shining feature of America’s otherwise dreary World Cup. And, if national team icon Crystal Dunn is on her way out of Portland, what better way to replace her than with another national team icon? But the truth is, up to this point, Lavelle has made the clear decision, like her former Reign teammate Megan Rapinoe, to prioritize the national team at the cost of her NWSL career. Since 2017, Lavelle has almost as many national team appearances (74) as NWSL regular season games (75), and has appeared in more than half of the NWSL schedule only once (2022).
Wven for a player as talented as Lavelle, you can’t cheat the NWSL. Let’s take a look at her career numbers:
Lavelle
4,869 minutes
10 goals
5 assists
2 playoff wins
0 championships
And now let’s take a look at Smith’s career numbers — keeping in mind that Lavelle has had a four-year head start:
Smith
4,046 minutes
32 goals
9 assists
2 playoff wins
1 championship
Now, the NWSL has grown dramatically since Lavelle got drafted, in 2017, to the Boston Breakers, one of the league’s lowliest-ever teams. If Lavelle is focused on finally adding NWSL success to her monster international résumé, adding her could be the championship-deciding move for whichever team signs her to a contract. At the same time, even national team legends can’t just kick things into gear for the playoffs after 10 stop-and-go regular season appearances.
Plus-minus numbers from FbRef.