Season Preview Series: NWSL Power Rankings
Completely, 100% accurate predictions about all 14 NWSL teams
Folks! It’s the week before the Thorns’ first 2024 game! Thorn Town is celebrating with a post every day, to preview the season. Today we get started with a ranking of all 14 NWSL teams — and, specifically, the tiers I think each team will end up slotting into.
With two new expansion teams in the NWSL, we’re moving to a format where eight of the 14 teams are making the playoffs. No playoff team will receive a bye week anymore, with the 1-seed opening against the 8-seed, and the 2-seed opening against the 7-seed, and so on. That does mean it’s possible for a team to host two playoff games, which was not possible under the old format. It also does mean that the elite regular season teams could be eliminated earlier than ever in the postseason.
The big trend of this offseason was: acquiring international talent. Almost every team made a truly major signing of a player who had been playing abroad — and, usually, that player also nationally represents an entirely different country as well. The gigantic wave of new global talent makes the NWSL harder than ever to predict. But, fortunately, I got it all 100% correct, as you will know when you check back in the fall.
Let’s get started on the teams! Starting with the squads I’m predicting will be in the cellar, and moving on up to the championship contenders.
Building for 2025?
The ultra-even NWSL standings mean that almost every team can realistically expect to contend for the playoffs. Well, almost every team. (Note that I’m going in alphabetical order within each tier.)
Chicago Red Stars
Chicago was trailing the pack by a mile last year: they had a -22 goal differential, while next-worst was at -6 (Kansas City). Yes, the team should see star forward Mallory Swanson return from injury. But: the team was still outscored 5-3 in Swanson’s two games last year, losing both times. Swanson has an individual positive goal differential in only one of six career NWSL seasons.
Utah Royals
Recent success stories in the NWSL have unrealistically altered expectations: being an expansion team is supposed to be hard. This is, honestly, exactly where Utah should be. If head coach Amy Rodriguez builds a positive team culture, that’s going to count for a successful season, even at this spot in the standings. And, who knows: longtime NBA General Manager Daryl Morey (Philadelphia 76ers) is part of this ownership group. Morey has already transformed one league thanks to his analytically savvy approach to the game. Maybe the NWSL will be next.
In the playoff fight — and on the outside looking in
With two weeks to go last regular season, virtually every NWSL team was realistically alive for the playoffs. I expect a similar traffic jam to develop this year, with the following three teams being in the mix until the final days:
Houston Dash
Do you like defense? Well then boy did you love the Dash. Houston’s 18 goals allowed last year was by far the best defense in the NWSL in 2023. And: their 16 goals scored meant they had by far the worst offense. Houston finished 10th overall in the league last year, but, at 26 points, they were a mere five points below playoff teams like Angel City and Gotham FC. Houston had one of the quietest offseasons of any team in the league, so, here we go again?
Kansas City Current
So much has been made of the need for NWSL teams to invest in quality stadiums and practice facilities. Well, the Current went out and did it, opening up the NWSL’s first team-exclusive stadium with the first game of this regular season. And: NWSL veterans were not interested, with Kansas City only making a minor impact in free agency. While the Current were statistically unlucky last year to finish all the way in 11th place, it’s hard to imagine them overcoming so many other playoff contenders and getting back to the Final, like they did in 2022.
Louisville FC
More than any other team, Louisville has combed the entire world for talent, with some lineups last year featuring players from all six populated continents. It’s an amazing fun fact — but it’s still true that Louisville has finished exactly 9th overall in all three years of their existence. Now, that honestly is a sign of improvement in a growing league. In 2021, there were only 10 teams in the NWSL, so 9th also meant second-to-last. In 2024, 9th means you’ll be better than five teams. So, heading in the right direction! But also kind of staying in the same place.
In the playoff fight — and making it in
Yes, an accomplishment to make the playoffs. But let’s not forget that the eighth and final playoff team is technically below-average in a 14-team league.
Angel City FC
Despite an awesomely ambitious launch as an organization, Angel City’s on-field roster sits almost perfectly in the middle of the league. It was not an especially imaginative offseason for the team: while they added positive players in Messiah Bright and former Thorn Rocky Rodríguez, they also lost every-minute midfielder Savannah McCaskill down the freeway to San Diego in free agency. While last year’s #1 pick Alyssa Thompson made an exciting splash into the league, she scored only one goal after Memorial Day.
Bay FC
Bay FC’s seismic offseason has no doubt served as a warning sign to other ownership groups across the league. Before playing a single game, it is clear that Bay FC wants to invest in climbing to the top of the NWSL hierarchy, and intends to stay there. That ascent might happen sooner than later: the big-money acquisitions of Asisat Oshoala and Rachael Kundananji means the team will have two of the most dangerous forwards in the league. A lack of depth could hold back the team from being elite in 2024 — and, it’s also true that they rocket well past this tier. Whatever the case: it’s already impressive that the team is looking like a playoff contender from Day 1.
North Carolina Courage
In 2023, the Courage were a surprise championship contender — until they suddenly weren’t, with MVP Kerolin tragically tearing her ACL on the last day of the regular season. Coach Sean Nahas was able to build a team greater than the sum of its parts by imposing a possession-based strategy: the Courage had over 1,500 more touches than any other NWSL team in 2023. If Kerolin were healthy, North Carolina would probably be a championship contender. Without her, there is still the infrastructure of a playoff team.
Seattle Reign
The offseason seemed to catch last year’s finalists by surprise. While the team knew that Megan Rapinoe was retiring, the Reign also watched Rose Lavelle and Emily Sonnett walk away in free agency, and didn’t seem to have much of a plan to replace them. With veterans like Lauren Barnes, Jess Fishlock, and Sofia Huerta all providing veteran stability, the bottom shouldn’t fall out for this team. But, it’s practical to expect Seattle to finish lower than 5th — and that hasn’t happened since 2013, the inaugural NWSL season.
Washington Spirit
Much like the USWNT, the Spirit are planning on an uncommonly patient strategy: they will play under an interim coach until Jonatan Giráldez arrives in mid-season, after he finishes his current job coaching FC Barcelona. Giráldez could very realistically win the European Champions League with Barcelona, and then arrive to find a Washington team in 11th or 12th place. Giráldez, who is only 32, has one of the most unique résumés of, honestly, any soccer coach of all time, in either the men’s or the women’s game. His cumulative record in three seasons at Barcelona: 76 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, with a +333 goal differential. (Not a typo: three-hundred-and-thirty-three.) It will be fascinating to see how and how much Giráldez impacts the team, as he adjusts to a much more balanced league, where losing is on the menu for everyone. Those type of stats are simply impossible in the NWSL, even if Giráldez is the best coach in the world — which he might be. Not knowing exactly how the season-of-two-halves will look makes Washington the very hardest team of all to predict.
A solid playoff team
With so many teams fighting for playoff spots until the end, I think only one team will be in that middle ground of: solidly in the playoffs, but not quite a championship contender.
Orlando Pride
Coach Seb Hines did a phenomenal job rebuilding this team as it went along last year. The Pride started the season on a four-game losing streak, while being outscored 10-1, and looked doomed for 12th place. Orlando only rose up the standings from there, and finished incredibly strong by winning six of its last nine games. Truly: it was only a tie-breaking goal differential that allowed Angel City and Gotham FC to sneak into the playoffs past Orlando, with all three teams earning exactly 31 points. Orlando’s rebuilding project should accelerate even faster now that the team paid a jaw-dropping $740,000 to acquire star Namibian scorer Barbra Banda.
Championship contenders
Gotham FC
They will win it all if: Rose Lavelle plays at least two-thirds of the season minutes, plus all of the playoffs.
Credit to General Manager Yael Averbuch West for realizing that, despite winning the 2023 championship, Gotham needed to add significant talent to the team in order to be back for 2024. While the team came through in crunch-time moments of the playoffs, it’s also true that they barely snuck into the postseason in the first place, with an 8-7-7 record and meager +1 cumulative goal differential. Once in the playoffs, they also received quite a bit of blind injury luck, facing: North Carolina without Kerolin; Portland with a significantly hobbled Sophia Smith; and only six minutes of Seattle with Megan Rapinoe, before her career-ending injury.
So: Gotham added four national team players in Tierna Davidson, Crystal Dunn, Rose Lavelle, and Emily Sonnett. In my view, this talent added isn’t so much the creation of a dynasty — it’s more like pushing Gotham above the middle of the pack, and into the 2024 title picture. The biggest swing factor is Rose Lavelle’s availability: in six NWSL seasons, she has played more than half her team’s minutes only once. (In 2022 with Seattle, helping the Reign to the league’s best regular season record.)
Portland Thorns
They will win it all if: The Thorns’ front office got an A on their scouting homework.
If you look at almost any advanced stat, the Thorns were by far the best team in the NWSL in 2023. They were league best in: total goals, cumulative goal differential, most progressive passes, most progressive carries, most shots on target, shot accuracy, goals assisted on…the list, in fact, does go on.
But, well, the Thorns didn’t set out to be league-best in so many obscure statistical categories, did they? They set out to win the championship, and their underlying stats seemed to matter less and less as the team started playing their worst soccer at the end of the year. Combined with lingering injuries to two of the team’s most important players (Becky Sauerbrunn and Sophia Smith) and, well, outside voices proclaimed it a bit of a down year for Portland. Such is the incredibly high standard for the Thorns: getting to the league semifinal, and only getting eliminated 1-0 in a nail-biting overtime, feels like a down year.
General Manager Karina LeBlanc signed seven new players for the Thorns this offseason. She had a clear strategy in mind: all of them are 26 or younger and, combined, they have 0 games of NWSL experience. If Portland has scouted the NCAA and Europe properly, then they have found a creative way to add much-needed depth behind the NWSL’s most dangerous starting lineup.
San Diego Wave
They will win it all if: Jaedyn Shaw is already the MVP.
San Diego already has America’s best young defensive player, in Naomi Girma. And this spring’s Gold Cup showed that they just might have the country’s best young offensive player as well, in Jaedyn Shaw. Shaw is improving almost by the month, having scored six goals for the national team since last October. (Trinity Rodman has seven for her career.) It’s not exactly going out on a limb to predict that Shaw will be a perennial MVP candidate. The question is if the leap already going to happen this year. San Diego was already last year’s best regular season team without the MVP. Shaw’s internal improvement could end up being more impactful than any of the dozens of offseason transactions, and push San Diego over the top.
Stats via fbref.com.