Sophia Smith: The Contract: The Comprehensive Situation
Looking ahead to the Thorns' gigantic fork in the road
By the middle of last season, Ryan Clark and Chris Rifer of the Soccer Made In Portland podcast identified the most important business decision the Thorns faced. The decision felt at least as important as the new change in ownership:
Will Sophia Smith sign a contract extension to stay in Portland after the 2024 season?
It would be the best possible news if we heard, just like we heard a few days before the start of the 2022 season, that Smith was signing an extension to stay in Portland. I trust that the Thorns ownership and GM Karina LeBlanc have extended an equitable (read: top-of-market) offer to Smith already.
And: I fully expect that Smith herself will want to enter unrestricted free agency in the 2024 offseason.
That’s not a bad thing. It doesn’t guarantee that Smith is leaving the Thorns — although it might end up that way. But, it has been a long and uphill battle for any women’s soccer player to get to a moment where they could be pursued, as a free agent, with multiple long-term offers, by multiple extremely healthy franchises. It makes a lot of sense that Smith, who will still be only 24 next offseason, would want the most possible freedom to make the decision about where to spend her potential prime. (Yes, folks: we might not have seen her prime yet.)
The Portland Thorns are absolutely one of the most appealing franchises on earth to play for. But they aren’t the only appealing team. Smith could be quietly taking the temperature of the new owners throughout 2024 to evaluate whether she wants to stay under their watch. She could have made her mind up already she wants to leave. She could have made her mind up already she wants to stay. She could want to stay in Portland, but could receive an unexpected offer from somewhere else that’s so compelling, she effectively has to take it.
I’m sure that really helps narrow it down.
Who is Sophia Smith?
I firmly believe: Sophia Smith is the most underrated player in all of American soccer.
Smith is often treated as “one of” a number of promising attacking players, who could end up being part of the next promising core of USWNT players. It seemed like Smith was viewed that way by the previous regime of USWNT coaches, who started Smith on the outside wing at the 2023 World Cup, while keeping 34-year-old Alex Morgan locked in centrally.
This evaluation of Smith ignores a lot of statistical evidence that she is in a tier by herself as the very best player in America, with nobody in very close competition.
Let’s take a look at the nine NWSL midfielders and forwards who The Guardian named on their 2023 Top 100 Players list. Here’s how often, last regular season, that player’s team scored a goal when they were on the field:
#18. Sophia Smith | Portland Thorns | goal every 34.2 minutes
#39. Kerolin | North Carolina Courage | 63.6 minutes
#41. Debinha | Kansas City Current | 66.2 minutes
#50. Trinity Rodman | Washington Spirit | 74.2 minutes
#53. Alex Morgan | San Diego Wave | 56.9 minutes
#63. Lynn Williams | Gotham FC | 75.1 minutes
#64. Esther González | Gotham FC | 56.8 minutes
#85. Jun Endo | Angel City FC | 56.8 minutes
#95. Alyssa Thompson | Angel City FC | 55 minutes
Smith is way, way far out in a category by herself, with the team scoring nearly twice as often as every other elite NWSL offensive force. Is this stat giving too much credit to Smith’s teammates? While Smith does have good teammates, the Thorns struggled to a goal every 102.1 minutes when she was off the field in 2023. Smith was Portland’s offensive engine, mostly on her own.
Let’s take a look at how Smith compares to the NWSL’s all-time goalscorer Sam Kerr across both of their NWSL careers (noting that, unfortunately, the stats do not exist for every year of Kerr’s career):
Sam Kerr
Age 19: team goal every 60 minutes
Age 22: 77 minutes
Age 23: 47.9 minutes
Age 24: 58.7 minutes
Age 25: 45.3 minutes
Sophia Smith
Age 20: 68.3 minutes
Age 21: 39.1 minutes
Age 22: 34.2 minutes
Kerr does still have the edge over Smith in non-penalty goals per 90 minutes, at 0.70 to 0.62. But Smith’s career so far has proven that she creates a much more powerful team offensive environment than Kerr — and really dramatically so, matching the players up age-by-age.
The domestic options
It feels bad to think of Smith as a free agent, able to go anywhere she pleases. But it’s also true that only so many teams in the NWSL, or the world, have the type of infrastructure in place that would appeal to a world-class player. Looking around at the other 13 NWSL teams, it sure is easy to eliminate a lot of them as options right away:
Basically impossible to picture: Chicago, Houston, Louisville, North Carolina, Orlando, Seattle
Sorry: these teams don’t have the type of tradition, or home fanbase, that would ignite the interest of many marquee free agents. While Seattle is one of the NWSL’s flagship franchises, Smith would have seen Portland have the distinct upper hand in this rivalry since she started playing for the Thorns in 2021. That includes a very meaningful step up in attendance, with Portland hosting literally more than double Seattle’s fans during each team’s home playoff game last fall. Combine that with Seattle having one of the most underwhelming offseasons of any team in the NWSL, and that 3-0 championship gap the Thorns hold over Seattle is looking huge right now.
Longshot geography interests: Bay FC, Kansas City, Utah
These teams are hoping that Smith is very interested in returning to either: her old college stomping grounds (Stanford / Bay FC), or a team that is a long-drive/short-flight away from her hometown of Windsor, Colorado (Kansas City, Utah). If the locations don’t appeal to Smith, well, these teams won’t end up being in the mix, either.
Just maybe a dark horse: Washington
If Smith is pulled in by the thought of playing alongside national team ally Trinity Rodman, and if much-anticipated coach Jonatan Giráldez works tactical wonders with the Spirit in the second half of 2024, the Spirit could be a very appealing option. Unlike the other teams mentioned so far, you can’t immediately eliminate Washington from the jump.
Got any cap space?: Gotham FC
Gotham FC are the reigning title contenders, and followed that up with an absolute monster offseason of recruiting big-name free agents. While it can’t be said with total certainty, since exact dollar amounts of all NWSL contracts are not released (unlike the WNBA or other leagues), but: it would make sense if Gotham’s 2023-24 spending spree eliminated them from having the budget to pay for Smith next year. And, if it didn’t eliminate Gotham from the running, then wow did their new crop of players take some major voluntarily pay cuts.
Glitz time gut punch: Angel City FC
Hopefully you can forgive Thorn Town for having a bit of a complex around the Small City vs. Big City debate that often comes up in sports free agency. While Portland is a small city that has the established fanbase of a big city, credit to Angel City for being a big city and immediately creating the fanbase of a big city. Angel City is set up for some incredible financial flexibility for next offseason, with forwards Katie Johnson, Sydney Leroux, and Christen Press all due to become free agents. The question is: is potentially chatting with Natalie Portman after practice, and being in the vicinity of LA-celebrity-type things, enough to overcome being part of a so-far-mediocre team? Although, of course: would the team’s mediocre days immediately end if Smith were to hop on board?
Red alert: San Diego
Here it is: a true monster threat, with no obvious weaknesses in their pitch. The Wave have been an elite championship contender since the moment they started as an expansion team, the sports equivalent of walking up a mountain as a baby. They are in sunny Southern California. They have the league’s highest average attendance, higher than even Portland. They will have the money to pay Smith: almost all of San Diego’s forwards will be free agents after this season: Amirah Ali, Elyse Bennett, Kyra Carusa, Sofia Jakobsson, and yes, even Alex Morgan. And one of the other forwards they do have locked in, Jaedyn Shaw, is only 19 years old, and could start a productive partnership with Smith for the USWNT at this month’s Gold Cup.
San Diego and Portland faced off in a tight playoff semifinal in 2022, and finished 1-2 on top of the league in 2023. In 2024, the two teams not only could be facing off for this year’s championship — they are in the best position to jockey for Smith’s services as well.
The international options
Of course, Smith would have the option to leave the NWSL entirely, and join one of a multitude of teams across Europe for the next stage in her career. While there is the ambient feeling that European soccer is somehow better — or more refined, or more sophisticated, or something — than American soccer, every European team has some significant drawbacks they would have to explain to Smith. First, with the exception of England’s Arsenal, every European team would have a much smaller average home crowd than Provvy Park in Portland.
Also, imbalanced European leagues mean that each of the superpowers is basically playing the Chicago Red Stars (or worse) half the time, and playing an actually competitive game half the time. That leads to some great padded stats. But it could feel like you’re far from the pinnacle of the global game trotting out a victory in front of a few hundred fans in Guingamp or Eibar.
The nature of European superpower teams also leads to the bizarre issue of rosters being overstuffed with stars. For instance, of all of Smith’s options, I would probably be most at peace if she went to FC Barcelona, joining with the world’s best player, Aitana Bonmatí, and creating some of the most aesthetically pleasing offense in history. However, one year after Asisat Oshoala scored a crazy 21 goals for Barcelona, the team suddenly had no room for her in the starting lineup, and Oshoala is now with Bay FC. The NWSL has gone through a recent moment being concerned about player treatment after the Kansas City Current didn’t warn Cece Kizer she was about to be traded. In my opinion, Barcelona’s treatment of a long-tenured player like Oshoala shows an even more blunt, bottom-line approach.
On the other hand, the lack of a hard salary cap in European leagues means that Smith’s biggest contract offer could come from abroad. In a way, it would be validating to see a major European team place that type of over-the-top value on Smith’s game. And, while it would be tough to no longer have Smith in a Thorns uniform, it would be a lot easier knowing she wouldn’t be lining up against the Thorns in 2025.
The bottom line
My blind guess on the situation is that: Smith is more likely than not to remain a Thorn. But it’s far from a guarantee, and the entire organization is under pressure to perform in 2024. That pressure extends from the new owners, the Bhathal family, down to the rookies who will be competing for minutes.
I think that GM LeBlanc has done a very underrated job this offseason in positioning the Thorns to be in good shape to re-sign Smith — and to be in good shape if Smith moves on. LeBlanc brought back experienced veterans on one-year deals, creating lots of potential cap space for the Thorns next offseason. And, every player LeBlanc signed to a multi-year deal was 25 or younger: a young core that could grow together with or without Smith.
Either way: the Thorns are only guaranteed 26 more games with the best player in American soccer — a player who very well could go down in history as the best of all-time. Every Thorns fan would hope that Smith’s entire career is synonymous with Portland. But, whatever decision gets made next offseason, it will always be true that the first chapter of Smith’s career was written in a Thorns uniform. It was a chapter that already produced one dominant championship, that could produce a second — and it creates the incredible feeling, just by having this one player on the field, that the Thorns are the better team in every single game.
Stats from FBref. A big thank you to Evan Davis of the Expected Own Goals podcast for additional clarification on Smith’s salary status.