Yikes
An uninspiring 2-0 loss on the road means alarm bells are officially ringing in Thorn Town
Game #4: Courage 2 - Thorns 0
0 wins - 1 draw - 3 losses
1 point | 14th place
Folks: the Thorns were never quite in this one. Former Thorn Tyler Lussi got her total revenge on Portland: first, she knocked home a corner kick in the fourth minute, and then set up teammate Haley Hopkins with a slick assist later in the first half. The Thorns would walk away from the game with a distinct advantage in Expected Goals, 1.1 to 0.4. However, the entire team had a notable lack of precision on all of their shot attempts, and North Carolina probably never felt truly threatened.
I was a bit surprised that the broadcast team didn’t mention what I saw as the main reason Lussi’s first goal went through: the sun. North Carolina’s, um, sparsely built (?) home field meant that, at the start of the game, the field was in distinct patches of sun and shadow. As Ashley Sanchez set up for the first corner kick of the game, it seemed like the most difficult-to-read part of the stadium, and I had a sinking feeling that the ball was going to be difficult to track as it launched out of the shadow and into the sun:
Now, the pregame coin toss — which determines the goals teams will shoot on, and which team will start with the ball — tends to be so unimportant that, well, I can’t find any record of who won the coin toss in this game. But, after looking back at the tape, North Carolina did start the first half with the ball. So, if the Thorns did choose which goal to shoot on first, they chose wrong. The awkward sun totally created this goal, and then was a total non-factor five minutes later, as the whole stadium was in shadow for the rest of the night.
Alright, that’s a lot of sunlight talk. I definitely don’t want to give the impression that the Courage got lucky or only won on the strength of these lighting shenanigans. North Carolina coach Sean Nahas has his team playing incredibly organized and unified. There is definitely a distinct strength in numbers that comes from the Courage, despite their lack of a big-name star player in 2024. (Kerolin, the 2023 MVP, is out for the year while recovering from an ACL tear.) The Courage didn’t engage in any time-wasting or any other bad-karma strategies with their 2-0 lead. Instead, they gunked up the works for the Thorns by always having extra players where it mattered thanks to smart positional play and incredibly high work rate. Here’s a fast break for Portland that went nowhere, thanks to North Carolina outworking the Thorns and turning it into a hopeless two-on-five situation:
Three strengths
Unlike most last-place teams, the Thorns actually are showing some distinct strengths — even in the midst of this miserable stretch of results. Before we look at what has gone wrong for the team, let’s take a look at the significant things that have actually gone right — the real reasons to expect that the team could storm up the standings as the season goes on. And, as it happens, all three of these strengths really build on one another:
1. Creative passing play
It’s true that, in the midfield, it’s felt like Jessie Fleming has yet to fully click into the team, and Olivia Moultrie has gotten off to a comparatively slow start. And yet: the Thorns’ cumulative passes have traveled the third-furthest up the field of any team in the NWSL. Even when the goals aren’t coming, the ball is still flowing upfield, from one line to the next.
2. Generating shots
All of that passing has led to an absolute ton of shots. Portland is actually the league lead in this one, and by far:
Total shots:
1. Portland - 77
2. Kansas City - 58
Shots on goal:
1. Portland - 26
2. Kansas City - 23
3. Little sustained possession for opponents
All of those offensive passes, and all of those shots, means that Portland is controlling the ball offensively — which means, among other things, the opponent isn’t controlling the ball offensively. Here’s yet another important category where Portland is best in the whole league: times per game the opponent touches the ball in their attacking third of the field.
Least opponent touches in attacking third per game
1. Portland - 100
2. Orlando - 108.3
Three problems to solve
Let’s also be honest: Portland hasn’t ended up at the bottom of the standings for no reason. To my mind, here are the team’s three biggest problems that have gotten them in this hole, with some ideas about how to solve it:
1. Shot-stopping
Looking at a goalie’s save percentage can be a bit of a misleading stat. What if a goalie’s defensive line is giving up a ton of dangerous shots that nobody could stop? What if the defensive line is rock-solid, and only allows no-hope shots from long distance? Both of these situations would hide a goalie’s true skill level. Still, we absolutely have a problem here: Shelby Hogan has only stopped 50% of attempts, or 10 out of 20 shots on target. That’s not just last in the league: that would be the worst mark out of any year the league has stats in this category (which is unfortunately not every year). The worst recorded mark over a full season is at 62.2%, by the Orlando Pride in 2022. Most teams finish somewhere in the 70%’s, with the elite ones climbing above 80%. This is definitely a problem.
A more detailed look at goalie performance would be the stat Post-Shot Expected Goals (PSxG). This stat goes a step further than Expected Goals, which analyzes the positions of the players on the field the moment a shot is released. Post-Shot Expected Goals adds in the speed and placement of the shot itself — how likely the ball is going to go in, post-shot. Portland’s performance in PSxG — against the quality of the opponent’s shooting — is off the back of the pack by a mile here, almost twice as worse as 13th place.
How to solve it: After a year-plus of waiting patiently on the bench, it’s time for the Thorns to give 2023 draft pick Lauren Kozal her NWSL debut, so we can all discover if she is a prospect for the future. I didn’t realize this before, but: Kozal actually made some appearances for America’s under-23 national team before the 2023 season, playing alongside high-profile names like Alyssa Thompson, Korbin Albert, and Mia Fishel, against an elite France team. That’s not on the résumé of every young player. It would be a welcome sight to see 2024 draft pick Kat Asman get an opportunity to debut as well. This area has gone poorly enough for the Thorns that the team shouldn’t be afraid to get experimental. Even if the experiment fails, it will be worthwhile to try.
The Thorns also have just a few hours to make a more dramatic move. Although details on the NWSL’s rules are frustratingly hard to find, the league calendar does operate in a series of “transfer windows,” or, specific moments when trades or international signings can occur. The transfer window is currently open, but closes this Friday, April 19. After that, it won’t open again until August 1 — when the Thorns’ destiny for 2024 is going to be decided, for better or worse.
Last fall, Seattle’s excellent goalkeeper, Phallon Tullis-Joyce, was suddenly benched, and ended up moving to Manchester United as the Reign built up to their playoff run. This is wishful thinking, but, perhaps there is suddenly a similarly disgruntled veteran somewhere in Europe, who would welcome a sudden move across the Atlantic? One also has to admire the strategy by the expansion team Bay FC: the team signed Canadian goalkeeper Lysianne Proulx after the 24-year-old gained experience in less-prominent leagues in Canada, Portugal, and Australia. Proulx is third-best in the NWSL in Post-Shot Expected Goals, giving Bay FC a solid foundation to stand on, as they are currently in 6th place.
2. Defensive lapses
As mentioned above, the Thorns are not giving up sustained possession to their opponents — but they have been giving up lightning-quick strikes that create immediate, dangerous opportunities. There are also indications that the Thorns don’t mentally recover quickly from goals: they gave up goals in quick bunches to both Kansas City and Louisville. In both games, Portland ultimately found their balance and controlled the game for most of the time on the clock — but they only elevated their game after the ball hit the back of the net multiple times. That’s too late to start bringing a true competitive edge.
How to fix it: At this point in the year, I think fourth-year Thorn Meaghan Nally deserves to be the first option off the bench at center defender, behind starters Becky Sauerbrunn and Kelli Hubly. Nally hasn’t appeared yet for the Thorns in 2024, so let’s look at how the team performed with her on the field in 2023, compared to how it’s going this year for Isabella Obaze:
Obaze 2024: 148 minutes | goal allowed every 21.1 minutes
Nally 2023: 419 minutes | goal allowed every 59.8 minutes
Even though Obaze is earning minutes with her home country of Denmark in elite European competition: for the moment, Nally is more comfortable and experienced with NWSL play.
3. Quality finishing
Like I said in the strengths section, the Thorns are generating a ton of quantity when it comes to offensive attacking. What’s missing is the quality. For example, the Thorns are leading the league in shots on goal per minute. Really good! But, very few of these shots are dangerous. Using the stat Post Shot Expected Goals, the Thorns rank 13th of 14 teams when it comes to the likelihood of scoring per shot.
And: that’s for when the Thorns do shoot on goal. The team has also fired off 51 off-target shots. More than half of the teams in the league don’t have 51 off-target and on-target shots combined.
Add in the fact that there have been moments where imprecise attacking play has meant that open players don’t even get a shot off at all, during moments when they should — this is definitely an issue. Portland is a solid fifth overall in total goals, but the strength of their offensive attack means they need to be in first, especially with so much ground to make up in the standings.
How to fix it: The Thorns’ offensive players are good enough, and experienced enough, it’s possible this problem will go away on its own. Another factor, however, might be that the team’s first-string options are being driven into the ground with heavy minutes for both the Thorns and their national teams. Five of Portland’s last six additions to the team have been midfielders or forwards: the likes of Payton Linnehan, Olivia Wade-Katoa, Marissa Sheva, Mallie McKenzie, and Ana Dias (and also second-year forward Izzy D’Aquila) can add an absolutely crucial rest factor if they provide quality play for 15, 20, or 25-minute shifts in most games. So far, nobody from this group has been given enough of a chance to see if they can be that type of contributor.
Up next
There is only one team in deeper disarray than the Thorns right now — and that is their next opponent, the Houston Dash. Although Houston is at 11th place in the league, they are the only team in the NWSL with a worse goal differential than Portland (-5 to -4). And now, just a few months after Houston made forward Maria Sanchez a very unlikely highest-paid player in the league, she is requesting a trade away from the team. Even Houston’s identity as a defense-first team has melted away: they gave up only 18 total goals in 2023, the best in the league. They’ve already given up 10 so far in 2024.
This is a home game for the Thorns, kicking off at 7 pm on Saturday, April 20, with the initial broadcast on ION, before the replay is available on NWSL+. I’ve said it before, and I’m sure I’ll say it again: wow do the Thorns really need the win and all three points from this one.
Stats from fbref.com.